A one-year Census reading
Are people leaving California?
Yes, the ACS 2024 estimate shows more people moving from California to other states than moving in from them. The measured gap is larger than its 90% margin of error. It does not explain why anyone moved or establish a multi-year trend.
Citable statement
In ACS 2024, an estimated 661,205 people (± 21,844) living in other U.S. states had lived in California one year earlier, while 406,873 (± 16,100) living in California had lived in another state. The net outflow was 254,332 ± 27,136 at the 90% margin of error, establishing the direction for this one-year estimate.
- Source ·
- U.S. Census Bureau, State-to-State Migration Flows: 2024 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates (Table T13). Official release Jan 21, 2026. Margins of error are 90% MOE.
- Status ·
- Latest available as of Sep 7, 2026. No 2025 state-to-state table is published.
- Limitation ·
- ACS previous-residence estimates count people aged 1 and over, not household-goods shipments, motives, permanent moves or a multi-year trend. The comparison excludes arrivals from abroad.
- Cite as ·
- YardPermit, “Are people leaving California? ACS 2024”, https://yardpermit.com/moving/data/california-migration — derived from U.S. Census Bureau ACS 2024 1-year Table T13.
What the balance actually says
One year, two directions
The Census Bureau asks where residents lived one year before the survey. California's outbound total counts people now living in another U.S. state who previously lived in California. Its inbound total reverses that question. These are estimates from a survey, so each total has a 90% margin of error. Subtracting the two point estimates gives a net balance; the margin of error for that difference is the square root of the sum of the two squared margins. That test supports a direction only when the gap exceeds its own margin.
- Out to other states
- 661,205± 21,844
- In from other states
- 406,873± 16,100
- Net outflow
- 254,332± 27,136
The outward difference exceeds its 90% comparison margin. This is evidence about the 2024 previous-residence balance, not proof that the same direction held in earlier or later years.
Destination evidence
Where did former California residents live?
Texas has the largest outbound point estimate: 77,161 ± 9,059 people, or 11.7% of California's reported outbound total. A rank orders estimates; it does not prove that nearby ranks differ. Each row below preserves the Census margin of error and uses the statewide outbound total as the share denominator.
Nevada and Arizona are second and third by point estimate, but their gap is only 906 people against a combined 90% comparison margin of 9,801. Their measured order does not clear that comparison test.
| Rank | Destination | People ± 90% MOE | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas | 77,161 ± 9,059 | 11.7% |
| 2 | Nevada | 53,289 ± 6,970 | 8.1% |
| 3 | Arizona | 52,383 ± 6,890 | 7.9% |
| 4 | Washington | 43,938 ± 5,464 | 6.6% |
| 5 | Florida | 36,194 ± 5,759 | 5.5% |
| 6 | Oregon | 31,500 ± 4,443 | 4.8% |
| 7 | New York | 31,367 ± 4,875 | 4.7% |
| 8 | Virginia | 20,180 ± 4,162 | 3.1% |
| 9 | Colorado | 19,717 ± 3,479 | 3.0% |
| 10 | Tennessee | 19,670 ± 4,848 | 3.0% |
Research file
Download the full destination table
The California outbound CSV contains all 50 other U.S. state and DC destinations, with each estimate, 90% margin of error and share of the statewide outbound total. It is generated from the same ingested ACS cells as this article. The denominator is the separately reported statewide total, not an invented market size or a count of moving-company shipments.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 2024 Table T13. The Census table is a federal government work. YardPermit's original selection, calculations and explanatory text are offered under CC BY 4.0; credit YardPermit and the Census Bureau separately, link this page, and retain the data year and uncertainty when reusing a claim. This license does not imply Census endorsement.
What this does not show
The table cannot say whether housing, taxes, employment, family or any other reason caused a move. It does not observe a household-goods shipment or a moving company's price. A one-year comparison is not a forecast and does not by itself establish a sustained exodus. For a move decision, use the route explorer to compare a specific pair, then check a carrier's current federal record with Mover Check and read each written estimate with Quote Check.